Tag Archives: Ron Sims

Racial and economic disproportionality

On February 2008 The Seattle Times published on their editorial page a guest piece on Equity and social justice. The election of Senator Barack Obama to the Presidency of the United States should increase the momentum to significantly erode racial and economic disproportionality. This will be particularly important as this nation’s racial make-up continues to undergo rapid change.

Is this of local concern? African Americans, Native Americans, Latinos and some Asian nationalities are aggregately worse off now than they were in 1970. Even updated census data would tell us the income inequality has seen rapid growth in our community. We need to be aware that the history of this country has taught us that communities with social unrest eventually see the erosion of their quality of life. Businesses relocate elsewhere and talented people find more suitable environments for work, play and to raise their children.

Bill Block who is leading the effort to end homelessness in King County sent me an email link to a New York Times article that discussed income in equality in five metropolitan areas, including King County. Researchers were from the University of Texas Inequality Project. The article reports ”According to Mr. Galbraith and Mr. Hale, much of the increase in income inequality in the late 1990’s resulted from large income changes in just a handful of locations around the country — precisely those areas that were heavily involved in the information technology boom.” The report shows that income inequality was the result of high technology investments in our area.

The 21st Century economy will be a technologically robust era. We are going to continue to invest in the expansion and enhancement of our tech industries. Does that mean we will also continue to be ravaged by poverty and race?

The point of the University of Texas research is not to discourage technological growth. It is to call our attention to its affect. But, we also know that out of the box solutions are being undertaken, explored, and researched in this community. We are the one community with all the tools and resources to reduce the impact of poverty. It will be done if we make considerably more strategic investments in early childhood education both locally and nationally. We also need to continue to rethink and retool our K-!2 schools. Most importantly, our efforts must focus on our poorest zip codes. In those zip codes lay the seeds that may fruitfully undermine our long-term quality of life.

Early Childhood investments are absolutely critical. There is cutting edge research being conducted at the UW Institute of Learning and Brain Sciences. They and other researchers would attest that before birth, an infant learns the “melody” of its mother’s voice. A newborn’s brain is only about one-quarter the size of an adult’s. It grows to about 80 percent of adult size by three years of age and 90 percent by age five. Some of the first circuits the brain builds are those that govern the emotions. The first two emotions are opposites: feeling calm and relaxed and feeling distress. Beginning around two months of age, these start to evolve into more complex feelings. During the first six years, its brain will set up the circuitry needed to understand and reproduce complex language. A six-month-old can recognize the vowel sounds that are the basic building blocks of speech.

Early Learning unquestionably makes a significant difference in the lifetime of an individual. Much of who we are is established between 0-5. Learning literally grows the brain. So, reading to and teaching children to read is an absolute must. But, the exposure to art, music, play, neighborhood, and outdoors activities are also powerful learning tools.

As a state and local priority we must reach every family with children between the ages of 0-5. If necessary, we should pair families in need of help with volunteers who can provide reading and artistic resources. We must do the same for children are under the care of unlicensed childcare providers. We must provide substantial funding for this effort with private and public sources.

In addition, the educational system must work for children in poverty. A Harvard retrained African American, Geoffrey Canada whose book “Whatever It Takes: Geoffrey Canada’s Quest to Change Harlem and America’ makes an incredibly strong case for reducing the impacts of poverty on the educational outcomes of children. It requires major system reform, parental training, and community accountability. We should attempt to uniformly replicate his efforts in the schools where we have significant participation in our free breakfast and lunch programs.

I have often heard, the poor shall be with us always. The context of the phrase denoted our indifference, thus our acceptance of poverty. Yet, we have come to believe we can change the world with technology. We have already changed our community by using the wealth generated by technology. Now is also the time to believe that we can eventually bring poverty in our community to its end.

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Converge

The dictionary defines the word convergence as “To come together from different directions; meet.” This past week there were two disparate articles that raise both our hope and our concern about pandemic diseases. Each, standing alone, was not particularly significant. But, when read together they are disconcerting.

The first article was one of hope. This article, “Deep in the Rainforest Stalking the Next Pandemic” was written about Nathan Wolfe, a 38-year-old visiting professor of epidemiology at Stanford. Dr. Wolfe states, “Before, the best thing you could do was develop a vaccine, but now people are recognizing that’s not going to be enough.”

“If you find diseases before they’ve really emerged,” he continued, “you can control them early on, before you get a major epidemic.” The article continues, “With the goal of identifying more of these “little sources” — new disease-causing pathogens — and choking them off, Dr. Wolfe started the Global Viral Forecasting Initiative this year. If new disease strains could be culled before they had a chance to take hold in humans, he reasoned, health organizations would have to spend less money and energy on developing expensive vaccines and treatment drugs.”

The second article was a report from Lloyd’s of London. Their Emerging Risks Team issued a new report on the threat posed by a global pandemic.

The report, “Pandemic – Potential Insurance Impacts” focuses on the threat to the global business community and, in particular, the insurance markets of a global pandemic.

The report concludes that a pandemic is inevitable; explaining that with historic recurrence rates of 30-50 years it is prudent to assume that a pandemic will occur sometime in the future.

Trevor Maynard, Manager, Emerging Risks, at Lloyd’s and the report’s author says: “The significant message is that society should not optimize to one particular scenario as a worst case. Much has been said of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic, which is said to have killed up to 100 million people worldwide. While Avian Flu is seen as the most likely next pandemic, we have to ensure we are prepared for other types of pandemics that may require different responses and pose different challenges —some of which may well have higher rates of mortality than flu.”

Maynard goes on to say, “The threat of pandemic to the global economy cannot be underestimated.” He explains. “If you look at the example of a recent limited pandemic, such as SARS, the regional economic impact was severe and a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak, even without the current economic conditions, would be expected to reduce global GDP by between 1% and 10%.”

These two articles of warning and prevention are a reminder that pandemics remain a constant and extraordinary threat. The world population in 1918 during the Spanish flu pandemic was 1.8 billion people. Today, according to the Population Reference Bureau, in 2008 the world population is 6.7 billion: 1.2 billion people live in regions classified as more developed by the United Nations; 5.5 billion people reside in less developed regions. “We will likely see the 7 billion mark passed within four years,” said Carl Haub, PRB senior demographer and co-author of this year’s Data Sheet. “And by 2050, global population is projected to rise to 9.3 billion. Between now and mid-century, these diverging growth patterns will boost the population share living in today’s less developed countries from 82 percent to 86 percent.” Over half live in urban environments. Never in human history has the available supply of fuel for a pandemic illness been greater.

According to USA Today, the threat posed by infectious diseases is of growing and immediate concern to infectious disease experts. A soon-to-be released report by the non-profit Trust for America’s Health asserts, “infectious diseases from the developing world are anything but “a back-burner concern.”

The report, “Germs Go Global: Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America,” cites National Intelligence Estimates that conclude outbreaks of new and resurgent infectious diseases, many of which “originate overseas,” kill more than 170,000 people in the USA each year.

The death toll would climb much higher in the event of a new global pandemic or bioterrorism attack. Infectious diseases, the report concludes, have become “a matter of national security.”

In his brilliant Pulitzer Prize winning book, Guns, Germs, and Steel, Jared Diamond “seeks the root answers to why European societies (and their American offspring) became the dominant powers on Earth in terms of wealth and power. He traces the proximate causes–the development of deadlier weapons technologies, immunity to germs, superior metal working, and writing systems–to the ultimate cause of the way food production varied in human societies and then looks at geographic variations and impediments that affected food production and the spread of technological innovation in all regions of the world.”

Dr. Irwin Sherman, a professor emeritus of biology at the University of California Riverside, in his book, Twelve Diseases That Changed Our World, also describes how bacteria, parasites, and viruses have swept through cities and devastated populations, felled great leaders and thinkers, and in their wake transformed politics, public health, and economies.

The US Center for Disease Control, The World Health Organization, and King County’s Department of Public Health have undertaken surveillance and preventive measures to protect the public from pandemic illnesses. Those investments must remain an international, national, and local priority. All of these agencies face the daunting challenge of developing measures to identify and prevent the spread from numerous germs that have the capacity to change human history. In an age of limited resources, the agencies must remain a key priority. We must commit to the robust funding of early warning systems. We must continue to remain vigilant about the microscopic life forms that with great swiftness and determination can change our world. If we don’t do these things, we are at peril.

A fool too late bewares when all the peril is past.
-Elizabeth I

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Overdrawn

Hardly noticed, and buried deep in the hundred pages of bailout legislation, is a provision that would raise the statutory ceiling on the national debt to an eye-popping $11.315 trillion dollars. In part, it includes the $700 billion bailout money, the $85 billion the U.S. government is lending to save the insurance company AIG, and the $200 billion it put up for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

It will even affect the iconic National Debt Clock in New York that now sits above the entrance of an Internal Revenue Service office in midtown Manhattan. It will need to be reprogrammed to handle the extra digit!

Why do I care? Why should you? Well, I have three children and promised their life would be better than my own. We should not hand my kids or yours a debt payment that is the greatest in the history of the world. With each year, government spending rises and the budget deficit gets bigger. As Steve Chapman, a columnist and editorial writer for the Chicago Tribune writes “As the Baby Boom generation retires, the gap will grow. Given current trends, federal outlays stand to double between now and 2050, while revenues remain roughly stable.”

He continues to write, “By then, two programs — Medicare and Medicaid — will cost as much as the entire federal budget does today. Which means that, essentially, we’ll be financing two federal governments. If you dislike carrying a defensive end on your back, wait till his twin climbs aboard.”

Wikipedia concisely states, “The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Treasury Department have warned that debt levels will increase dramatically relative to historical levels, due primarily to mandatory expenditures for programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest. Mandatory expenditures are projected to exceed federal tax revenues sometime between 2030 and 2040 if reforms are not undertaken. Further, benefits under entitlement programs will exceed government income by more than $40 trillion over the next 75 years. The severity of the measures necessary to address this challenge increases the longer such changes are delayed. These organizations have stated that the government’s current fiscal path is “unsustainable”.”

In Congressional testimony, Peter Orszag, Director of the Congressional Budget Office said that “substantial increases in revenues,” perhaps even in tax increases, will be necessary in the short term to cover the initial infusion of hundreds of billions in borrowed dollars into the private sector, especially given the already record budget deficits and federal debt levels the government is currently running.”

He also said “that the combination of high budget deficits and record expenditures on bailouts — including the proposal now before Congress — has significantly hampered the government’s ability to respond further to any economic crises.”

On his blog site Orszag states, “How Would Rising Budget Deficits Affect the Economy? Sustained and rising budget deficits would affect the economy by absorbing funds from the nation’s pool of savings and reducing investment in the domestic capital stock and in foreign assets. As capital investment dwindled, the growth of workers’ productivity and of real (inflation-adjusted) wages would gradually slow and begin to stagnate. As capital became scarce relative to labor, real interest rates would rise. In the near term, foreign investors would probably increase their financing of investment in the United States, but such borrowing would involve costs over time, as foreign investors would claim larger and larger shares of the nation’s output and fewer resources would be available for domestic consumption.”

He continued to state, ”According to CBO’s simulations using that model, the rising federal budget deficits under this scenario would cause real gross national product (GNP) per person to stop growing and then to begin to contract in the late 2040s. By 2060, real GNP per person would be about 17 percent below its peak in the late 2040s and would be declining at a rapid pace. Beyond 2060, projected deficits would become so large and unsustainable that the model cannot calculate their effects. Despite the substantial economic costs generated by deficits under this model, such estimates greatly understate the potential loss to economic growth because the effects of rapidly growing debt would probably be much more disorderly and could occur well before the time frame indicated in the scenario.”

The growth of the federal debt is the emergency we face. It is unsustainable and unfairly burdens future generations. We’ve seen the enemy; it is our appetite for spending.

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Save a life

Infections – we all get them, and astoundingly, many people will die from them. But, you’d never think that we’d get them in the hospital while being treated for another illness. Or see the needless loss of life of a newborn baby because of an infection in a nursery.

Some individuals will become infected in an ambulatory care facility. These infections are called health-care-associated infections (HAIs), also referred to as hospital acquired infections.

HAIs are a serious and pervasive issue afflicting our health care system. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), HAIs are estimated to be one of the top 10 causes of death in the US, totaling 100,000 per year. That means more patients die of HAIs than from HIV/AIDS (60,000 per year) and automobile accidents (40,000 per year). Specifically, central-line infections occur in 250,000 people a year in the US, and are fatal between 5% and 28% percent of the time.

HAIs are very costly, should be mostly preventable, and everyone – patients, employers, hospitals and even state and federal government (Medicare) – bears the burden of these costs. It is reported that HAIs add as much as $20 billion in additional costs to the health care industry. In 2005, the average payment for a hospitalization in Pennsylvania was over six times higher for patients who contracted a hospital-acquired infection than for patients who did not acquire infections, according to a report by the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council. Moreover, a 2007 study of 1.69 million patients who were discharged from 77 hospitals found that the additional cost of treating a patient with an HAI averaged $8,832. This is alarming when data show that Medicare, alone, the federal health insurance program for persons over 65, paid for over one-third of all hospital costs in 2005, according to the American Hospital Association.

Ironically, the Federal Office for Human Research Protections shut down a Michigan HAI project, even as it proved itself to be effective. I think it is time for Congressional action.

Can we reduce HAIs? The leading hospitals in the nation successfully tackling them are Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, Johns Hopkins in Baltimore, and a consortium of hospitals in Michigan. Allegheny, under Dr. Jerome Granato’s leadership the past five years, and with support from Dr. Peter Perreiah of the Pittsburgh Regional Health Initiative, reduced central-line HAIs by 90% in two years, and sustained a 15 month period in their ICU with no infections.

In this state, the Puget Sound Health Alliance (Alliance), a regional consortium of employers, providers, health plans, unions, and patients aimed at improving the quality of health care in Puget Sound, has made HAIs a priority (www.pugetsoundhealthalliance.org). An Alliance workgroup recommends “highlighting the incidence of hospital acquired infections to lower their occurrence and resulting costs to the system.” The Alliance is currently working with the State Department of Health to make the data more transparent and more consumer-friendly, and will include HAI outcomes data in future reports of its own Community Checkup Report (www.wacommunitycheckup.org). The Alliance is also researching how it can help accelerate current HAI efforts in the Puget Sound region using the proven interventions from Pittsburgh and Johns Hopkins.

Mirroring national efforts, the Washington State Hospital Association (WSHA) and Washington State have been engaged in patient safety efforts. Washington was the first state to get all its hospitals participating in Institute for Healthcare Improvement’s 100,000 Lives Campaign. WSHA is actively engaged in national efforts in addition to its own effort, which includes providing technical assistance to hospitals and disseminating posters and brochures to promote hand washing and staff training. Washington State, in 2007, passed SB1106 to mandate public reporting of certain HAIs beginning in January 2009. A phased-in approach, in July 2008, all hospitals were required to start collecting and reporting all central line-associated infections in ICUs. (When this data will be available to the public has not yet been determined.)

We know what works, as evidenced by efforts in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Michigan, and now it’s our turn to implement these best practices here and work with the federal government to break down barriers to efforts that will save patients’ lives. It is imperative that we publicly report the incidence of health care associated infections by facility in King County and the State of Washington, in order to shed light on the problem and save lives.

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Do you have any skin in the game?

In King County our budget process has always been placed above political ambition and the parochial self-interest of different branches. It is my fervent hope that that tradition will continue as we grapple with the most difficult budget the County has ever faced. Unfortunately, that isn’t the tempo of recent public discussions.

Who stands to lose if we continue down the battle path, you the taxpayer, voter, and resident of King County? So the question for you: do you have any skin in this budgetary game?

With all of the recent posturing, press releases, press conferences and rumor mongering, one of the most critical services the County provides has received very little discussion. In this day and age of confrontational politics and news, it could become the unfortunate victim.

So, let me digress a bit. Remember these points. The human body is an ecosystem, flourishing and nurturing hundreds of millions upon billions of bacteria and microbes; the history of disease should worry us; human beings are not a stationary species; and, when we kiss, hold or shake hands, share our food, or engage in sex, we are simply mixing up a new batch of microbial material!

History is replete with the impacts of infectious diseases. Insects, birds, rats, plants, and humans have transmitted these diseases. They have reshaped history and retired entire cultures. Germs reshaped the history of the lands we now call the United States. Disease nearly eradicated the Native American population of North America. It is estimated that two thirds of the Native American population died of illnesses introduced by Europeans. Do we face these same threats today? According to all of the experts, the threat is growing at an ever-increasing rate. These organisms are mutating and evolving with remarkable speed with increasing resistance to medical treatment: they are genetically shrewd and wish to survive. SARS, avian influenza, hantavirus and extensively drug resistant tuberculosis are just a few recent examples of newly identified infectious agents that have caused serious human illness. Our food production and distribution system makes it easier than ever for contaminated products to reach large numbers of persons spread over wide geographic areas. So far this year the US has seen more measles cases than any time since 1996, primarily do to infected persons from other countries traveling to the US and setting off a series of outbreaks. How does all of this happen?

Wikipedia provided this description of the skin: ”The skin supports its own ecosystems of microorganisms, including yeasts and bacteria, which cannot be removed by any amount of cleaning. Estimates place the number of individual bacteria on the surface of one square inch (6.5 square cm) of human skin at 50 million though this figure varies greatly over the average 20 feet2 (1.9 m²) of human skin. Oily surfaces, such as the face, may contain over 500 million bacteria per square inch (6.5 cm²).” That is just the skin!

But, it isn’t just our skin that houses bacteria and microbes. Dr. Trudy M. Wassenaar, in “Bacteria more than Pathogens” says, “We house millions of bacteria on our skin and in our nose, mouth, and gut:

  • Up to 500 species can be found as normal oral flora
  • There can easily be 25 species living in a single mouth
  • A milliliter of saliva can contain as many as 40 million (4 x 107) bacterial cells
  • 108 bacterial cells present in the cecum (the initial part of the colon) per milliliter of content is normal and many of these species are different from those found in the mouth
  • We are born sterile (free of bacteria) but within hours we are colonized by our little friends, not to be left alone again.”

NPR reports, “The human body contains 20 times more microbes than it does cells. In fact, a visitor from outer space might think the human race is just one big chain of microbe hotels.” Inside and out, we are just one big carrier of other life forms!

But, why should King County government care about your body or mine?

Typically, we live in a natural, harmonious balance with the multitude of organism we naturally carry within our bodies and even more potential pathogens living in innumerable natural reservoirs in the environment, including animals, water and soil (I.e., influenza and avian influenza viruses, Legionnaire’s disease, leptospirosis, E. coli, salmonella and other food-borne diseases). We’re literally surrounded by infectious agents.

But, all too often, that natural balance is upset, leaving us vulnerable to disease. Germs constantly learn new tricks – development of drug resistance and new virulence traits allow them to cause disease more effectively in human populations. In addition, new infectious agents emerge when we upset the balance between man and nature, encroaching on new habitats (SARS).

As Mary Wilson from the Harvard School of Public Health and the Harvard Medical School in her seminal paper “ Travel and the Emergence of Infectious Diseases” states, “Today’s massive movement of humans and materials sets the stage for mixing diverse genetic pools at rates and in combinations previously unknown. Concomitant changes in the climate, technology, land uses, human behavior, and demographics converge to favor the emergence of infectious diseases caused by a broad range of organisms in humans, as well as in plants and animals.” Simply put, the introduction of an infectious disease can happen any day, and at anytime. It is not a matter of if, but when. They will arrive with someone, likely a visitor, relative, friend, or a neighbor.

What organizations are there to protect us? The United Nation’s World Health Organization, the US Center for Disease Control, and most importantly, our King County Department of Public Health are responsible for our health safety. The Department of Public Health is our key local first responder, our community’s immune system. It is that department that has the primary responsibility to prevent, detect, treat, and control the widespread introduction of diseases.

Our local Public Health Agency quietly protects us from infectious diseases every single day. They insure that our food and water are safe to consume. If the local and national health and economic security of the general population were our highest priority, public health would also be our highest priority. It is there that the greatest number of lives can be saved and protected. It is that department who we will all turn to when the infection eventually lands as SeaTac; or arrives at our ports; or drives here on I-90 or I-5. If the Department of Public Health fails, we all lose.

Balancing a budget is a challenge. Public Health must be a priority. One can make a compelling case for the preservation of social safety nets, public safety, and justice. We will need a balanced approach. This is not a time for the cynical and expected game of political one-upmanship. Nor should we tolerate the voices that play to our fears, suspicions, distrust, and our base interest. We are a better community when the voices we hear speak to our optimism, even in the most trying times. Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised. Maybe, there is a glimmer of a chance that the common good will be united with common sense. Maybe.

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Coping with climate change

Touring Brightwater

I’m not interested in any more stories about Polar Bears. Those stories are just incremental measures of the climate change that we all know is coming. One reporter I spoke with this week called people who want to still debate whether climate change is real “members of the flat earth society. I say the scientists have it right.

Now, we need to figure out how to live with the change that is happening no matter how much we reduce greenhouse gases. That’s the real story.How are ordinary people going to cope with floods, record heat, water shortages, shorelines washed away and even new diseases that will thrive where they couldn’t before? It’s my job to make sure our community is resilient to climate change.

In the coming years there will be winners and losers in the world and the winners will live where governments have looked at how to best cope with the inevitable change. I am determined to make sure we are winners. Our safety, health and economy for the next 50 years depend on the work we do today that will protect us in the future.

I’m thinking and talking about this a lot this week as we host a meeting of nine metropolitan leaders who are all doing the work to provide resiliency and sharing this work to build a model for the rest of the world to use. The work is being led by the Center for Clean Air Policy, a think tank in Washington, D.C., and partially funded by the Rockefeller Foundation. It’s important work, and I’m thankful to have the support of both organizations. Learn more on their Web sites. Or watch a video about the event.

Eastside Rail Corridor: backstory’s done. Your turn to write the ending.

It’s official. The Port of Seattle Commissioners voted to approve the deal to purchase the Eastside Rail Corridor and preserve it in public ownership forever. You can read more about it here.

Monday, I joined Port Commissioner Tay Yoshitani, Port President John Creighton and the other Port Commissioners in Bellevue beneath the Wilburton Trestle along the rail corridor to thank them for their work on this effort. I also extended thanks to U.S. Senator Patty Murray for her support over the past couple years, Burlington Northern – Santa Fe CEO Matt Rose, King County’s Council and the community. It was wondeful to celebrate the historic moment.
We first started looking at this idea in 2006. After many discussions, changes, negotiations, and ideas from stakeholders, the King County Council unanimously approved the deal last week, followed by the Port. We had a signing ceremony in a fitting location along the corridor: beneath the Wilburton Trestle in Bellevue.

Now it’s your turn to weigh in. Plans are being made right now for a public process to gather the community’s thoughts on what the corridor should look like, how it will be used and what should be considered when making decisions about it for the future. The Port will manage the public
process so watch their site and local news media for updates over the next year.